Since this is my first column for 1999

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Since this is my first column for 1999, let me wish each and every one of you a Happy and Prosperous New Year.

I would also like to thank those readers who took the time to reply to my question in my article in the last edition of the magazine. I appreciate your suggestions, and have taken them under advisement.

1999 Issues

While there will be many issues facing planners during this year, the key one will still be preparations for Y2K. The countdown for Y2K is now less than 365 days. The question many people are asking me is: Is this going to be a dramatic event or an overblown event? While I can’t answer the question, my analysis from talking with other people is that 53% of the people think that nothing is going to happen, 28% of the people think that something will happen, but it will be minor, and 19% of the people think that there are going to be some significant problems with which to deal.

From the contingency planning point of view, this is really challenging. One advantage is that we all know the date of the event for which we are planning. Companies are putting Y2K contingencies into place. IT people are working diligently on correcting date problems. In fact, many companies are assuring customers and shareholders that they have the problem under control. Here’s hoping they are right.

But, from a personal point of view, it’s a little scary. As you begin analyzing all of the "what ifs," one has a sense that one must take precautions. As we succumb to these precautions, one can be perceived of as cynical or paranoid. For me, a person who started in data processing in 1965, and started in disaster recovery planning in 1973, being looked at as a cynic or paranoid is not at all unusual. But for many of you, the idea of being a cynic or being considered paranoid, is something you would rather avoid. Remember, to deny what your brain is warning you of, can only come back to haunt you later.

Y2K Challenge

The challenge brings many opportunities for contingency planners to show their creativity. Y2K is a very complicated crisis to prepare for. It’s not as easy as changing the size of the date field in the computer systems and applications. While that is the main thrust, we also have to plan and test the "what ifs" that will be used to resume any time-sensitive business operations that have been interrupted.

There are numerous potential problems being talked about that could befall us on January 1, 2000. For the purpose of this column, let’s just concentrate on one.

One of the more common problems people are concerned about is a power outage. If the power is unavailable during the first week of January, how will companies provide power for their time-sensitive business operations? To minimize the potential of an outage, many companies have installed, or are installing, generators to backup any loss of power. This is an excellent contingency planning strategy. A question must then be asked, - and answered. "How long will your company’s fuel storage tanks last before the fuel runs out? Who is the vendor that will provide you with an ongoing supply of fuel? Have you talked with this vendor to determine the availability of fuel today? The expected availability of fuel in January of 2000?

The problem is that we’re not talking about a small, localized area being affected. "What if" a large city loses power, and many of the companies are forced to rely on generators. Where will each of the affected companies that are operating on generators obtain additional fuel? How many companies will be calling your fuel vendor? All of the fuel vendors? How many fuel vendors are there? Will there be enough fuel to be able to replace the fuel being used? If we want to become paranoid, we would carry the thought process out to: will the fuel vendor be able to be supplied by the fuel producer?

Power Outage Lesson

Pacific Gas & Electric Co. suffered a power outage on Tuesday, December 8, 1998. It occurred about 8:15 a.m. A PG&E crew doing maintenance work at a substation was blamed for causing the outage. The crew had disconnected power to make improvements, using a copper rod to ground the lines as a safety precaution. The ground lines are supposed to be removed after the maintenance work is completed and before the power was restarted. The workers failed to remove the ground, in effect causing a massive short circuit. An article by Rebecca Smith described what happened then, - "When the switch was thrown, electricity bypassed four lines (115,000 volts each) that supply power to the Peninsula and San Francisco and instead plowed into the ground. In addition to human error, blame the physical laws that govern electricity’s behavior. Electricity is basically lazy. It would rather follow a ground wire going nowhere than do the hard work of negotiating miles of power lines and numerous substations on a journey up the Peninsula to San Francisco. Presented with an attractive shortcut, a sharply rising amount of electricity raced off the electric grid and through the San Mateo substation and dashed itself into the mud. This rush of electrons created an instantaneous voltage fluctuation on the grid - a weblike system of interconnected power plants, power lines and substations - that tripped relays designed to protect very expensive, very temperamental pieces of equipment from overloading.1

As a result of this power outage, 435,481 PG&E customers - or about a million and a half people - lost power for anywhere from two (2) to seven (7) hours. The incident threw the morning commute period into chaos. It affected businesses, both large and small. E-mail, voice mail, answering machines, and faxes all went dead. It stranded dozens of people in elevators. Some businesses shut down, ranging from financial district brokerages to neighborhood coffee shops. The blackout led some participants to believe they were witnessing a preview of the first week of January, 2000.

Lessons To Be Remembered

Examples of the Backup Power Strategies at television stations included:

KQED-TV (PBS) did not have a backup generator. As a consequence, the station was dark from the beginning of the blackout until 3:10 p.m..

• Lesson - we need to have a generator in order to resume time-sensitive business operations.

KGO-TV (ABC) lost electricity for only a few seconds before its emergency backup generator kicked in.

• Lesson - we need to have a generator in order to resume time-sensitive business operations.

KRON-TV’s backup generator failed, and the station went black for 90 minutes while technicians worked on a news van to provide a signal until the station’s emergency generator was repaired.

• Lesson - we need to test and then exercise the generators. This was the lesson passed on to us after the Consolidated Edison Company’s fire in New York City on August 13, 1990. Many of the generators failed. Some failed when they were supposed to kick on. Many others failed after the first or second day, because they couldn’t handle the electric demands. The Lesson sent forth was that companies need to test and exercise their generators on full power, not partial power. They also need to test or exercise them over an extended period of time, i.e. the entire weekend, rather than for one (1) hour over a Saturday or Sunday.

In conclusion, we only dealt with one of the aspects of the Year 2000 problem. In my next column, I’ll attempt to deal with other aspects, and the importance of Y2K planning.

1 (Powerless: Electric Grid Went Down Like Dominoes; by Rebecca Smith; San Francisco Chronicle; Wednesday, December 9, 1998)

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Ed Devlin is an Executive Consultant for the Peak Business Unit of Alpine Computer Systems. Ed has recently been featured in a series of training videos produced by the BCP Videos Company.

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