Risk modeling is a useful tool for business continuity managers, but over-reliance and flawed approaches can create difficulties. By Geary W. Sikich.
Fundamental uncertainties derive from our fragmentary understanding of risk and complex system dynamics and interdependencies. Abundant stochastic variation in risk parameters further exacerbates the ability to clearly assess uncertainties.
Uncertainty is not just a single dimension, but also surrounds the potential impacts of forces such as globalization and decentralization, effects of movements of global markets and trade regimes, and the effectiveness and utility of risk identification and control measures such as buffering, use of incentives, or strict regulatory approaches.
Such uncertainty underpins the arguments both of those exploiting risk, who demand evidence that exploitation causes harm before accepting limitations, and those avoiding risk, who seek to limit risk realization in the absence of clear indications of sustainability.
The wrong words online can come back to haunt you
The case of Justin Carter, the Central Texas teen jailed for over five months as a result of a Facebook comment, is a powerful lesson in just how serious social media has gotten, and why your personal crisis management considerations should include careful censorship of controversial conversation.
Here’s what went down, as described in a HuffPost blog by Ryan Grenoble:
- See more at: http://managementhelp.org/blogs/crisis-management/2013/07/12/jailed-texas-teen-a-social-media-crisis-management-lesson/#sthash.fpMEHyYv.dpuf
Earlier this year, Carter and a friend got into an Facebook argument with someone regarding “League of Legends,” an online video game with notoriously die-hard fans. Justin’s father, Jack, explained to ABC local affiliate KVUE that at the end of the conversation “[s]omeone had said something to the effect of ‘Oh you’re insane, you’re crazy, you’re messed up in the head,’ to which [Justin] replied ‘Oh yeah, I’m real messed up in the head, I’m going to go shoot up a school full of kids and eat their still, beating hearts,’ and the next two lines were lol and jk [all sic].”