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Volume 26, Issue 2

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1998: The Year of El Nino in the Southeast

Written by  John Copenhaver Thursday, 15 November 2007 21:30
It began as a 'warm spot' in the Pacific Ocean, and grew into a monster that spawned deadly weather events throughout the world. The 1997-98 El Nino will go down in the history books as one of the strongest such phenomena ever recorded; its impact on the southeastern United States, while falling short of the single-event magnitude of a hurricane such as Andrew, will nonetheless be chronicled in the unprecedented string of disasters which have befallen this region since 1998 began with widespread flooding in the state of Florida.

October - December 1997

The rains began throughout the region. In Florida, constant rainfall created flooding conditions which caused State officials to request assistance from the Small Business Administration (SBA) in the form of SBA disaster aid. The recurring downpours saturated much of the northern and central portions of the state, setting the stage for the coming weather problems. On December 16, the Florida Division of Emergency management (DEM) held a conference in Tallahassee dedicated to informing Florida Emergency managers and the general public about the projected El Nino weather event impacts.

January 1998

The new year begins with a Presidential disaster declaration in Florida as a result of the El Nino rains; Governor Lawton Chiles requests a declaration from the President on January 2, and the President declares four counties in the state eligible for Federal assistance on January 6. Within several days, an intense rainstorm over Roan Mountain on the border of Tennessee and North Carolina causes flash flooding in both states. The flooding claims seven lives in Tennessee and does considerable damage in both states. Governor Sundquist of Tennessee requests a declaration from President Clinton, and on January 13 the President declares four counties in Tennessee as disaster areas. Governor Hunt of North Carolina requests assistance, and on January 15 receives a Presidential declaration covering two counties in the state. The new year is barely two weeks old, and three states have already received Presidential disaster declarations!

February

Flooding continues in Florida, as the state is hammered by fronts moving through on almost a daily basis. On February 2, the 'Groundhog Day' storm strikes the southern tip of Florida with high winds and tornadoes, resulting in another Presidential disaster declaration on February 12 for the three southernmost counties (Broward, Dade and Monroe). Almost exactly at midnight on Sunday, February 22, a massive storm front blows through central Florida, spawning huge, devastating tornadoes that leave 40 people dead and scores injured. The previous Friday, February 20, the 'incident period' of the flooding disaster in central Florida was reopened, permitting the twister-ravaged counties to be immediately given access to Federal assistance - a fortunate development for the families hit hard by the virtually unprecedented F4 (on the Fujita scale) tornadoes. In other states, the rain continues to fall on soil already saturated by previous storms. In Kentucky, a huge snowstorm strikes the state, virtually paralyzing businesses and government operations.

March

On March 3, the fifth Presidential disaster declaration of a still-young calendar year is issued for the state of Kentucky to assist in the recovery from the effects of the record-setting snowstorm. The rains continue in the southern areas of the Southeast, and major flooding strikes both the states of Alabama and Georgia (with floodwaters continuing to rise in Florida). The President declares the sixth and seventh disasters in the region in 1998, for south Alabama and south Georgia respectively. In the morning hours of Friday, March 20, another huge storm front blows across Georgia and North Carolina; tornadoes again strike both states, destroying homes and claiming lives in a swath beginning near Gainesville, Georgia and moving up into the Stoneville area of North Carolina where much of the downtown zone is reduced to rubble. The counties torn apart in Georgia are added to the already-effective Presidential declaration in Georgia, while North Carolina receives its second major disaster declaration of the year (and the record eight declaration for the Southeast region in less than three months!). Unfortunately, the strongest tornado is still yet to come, less than three weeks later.

April

The evening of Wednesday, April 8, sees more severe weather warnings covering the Southeast. In and around Jefferson County, Alabama, several tornadoes touch down and begin carving swaths of almost total destruction. One of these twisters is almost a mile wide and is later classified as having reached the peak of the Fujita scale - F5, bearing winds of over 260 miles per hour. Thirty-four people are killed by this monster, with many others injured or left homeless. The front tracks into Georgia, where at almost midnight the twisters descend on the Atlanta area; trees are snapped in half or uprooted and homes reduced to kindling within seconds as the tornadoes move East. Fewer deaths occur from these storms, but the damage left behind is immense. The President declares the counties hit hard in Alabama as disaster areas on April 9 (the ninth declaration in the region), while the counties in Georgia are again added to already-existing declaration covering this state. Plans to hold a 'Tornado Summit' are begun by the Regional staff of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) in Atlanta. The Summit is scheduled for Friday, April 24, but comes after another outbreak of twisters in Tennessee. During this outbreak, television cameras catch the terrifying spectacle of a tornado ripping through downtown Nashville. More lives are lost, more property destroyed, and again a Presidential disaster is declared, on April 20 - the tenth such disaster in less than four months! The Tornado Summit takes place as planned, and initiatives to reduce the terrible toll of these violent storms are discussed and, in several instances, actually begun. The month does not end before another weather calamity, however - the Bowling Green area of Kentucky is slammed by a suspected tornado, straight-line winds and baseball-sized hail, resulting in the eleventh Presidential declaration of disaster issued on April 29. More severe weather watches and warnings are issued for the month of May; more tornadoes touch down throughout the Southeast, but with far less devastation. The National Weather Service declares El Nino to be fading quickly - a development greeted with relief throughout the region. Unfortunately, the lingering effects are not all vanishing.

June

In the disaster-weary state of Florida, the rains have long since ceased. No appreciable rainfall is recorded in the northern and central portions of the state from mid-April onward, and the massive growth of underbrush fueled by the earlier floods quickly becomes bone dry. Fires begin springing up, and quickly spread in the highly favorable conditions. As of this writing, the third Presidential disaster of the year has been declared in Florida on June 18, covering all sixty-eight counties; all told, twelve disasters have been declared in the Southeast in less than six months, with three other tornado outbreaks having been incorporated into existing open declarations.

Conclusions

With the year not even half over and the heart of hurricane season yet to come, the emergency management community has come through a record-setting period of adversity with no time whatsoever to rest upon its hard-won laurels. From the perspective of one who has witnessed this continuing destruction, the time has clearly come to expand our nation's focus on disasters - from the traditional 'pound' of response and recovery to the inclusion on an 'ounce' of preparedness. Toward this end, FEMA has announced a partnership initiative bringing together local, state and Federal authorities with their business sector counterparts to reduce the potential impact of disasters on American communities. The author strongly urges all who read this article to find out more about this 'Project Impact' initiative by calling their FEMA Regional office and to sign up to make our communities more resistant to the disasters which will someday occur.

 



     John Copenhaver is the FEMA Director for Region Four.

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